[PAGE 1]
CITY COUNCIL VISIONING, PLANNING AND WATER USE
WORKSHOP
ZEPHYRHILLS, FLORIDA
Monday, November 17, 2025
5:00 PM
Zephyrhills Council
City Hall Chambers
Call to Order — Council President Charles E. Proctor
Roll Call — City Clerk Ricardo Quiñones
1. WORKSHOP ITEMS
1.1 Water Status Overview-Please see the attachment for summary points.
1. W ater_summary_handout
1.2 Joint Visioning Workshop
1. H andouts_JointWorkshop_Visioning_2025_1110_draft
CITIZEN COMMENTS
ADJOURN
* PLEASE NOTE: This is a Public Meeting. Should any interested party seek to appeal any
decisionmade by the Council with respect to any matter considered at such meeting or
hearing, he or she will need a record of the proceedings, and that, for such purpose, he or
she may need to ensure that a verbatim record of the proceeding is made, which record
includes the testimony and evidence upon which the appeal is to be based. F.S. 286.0105. If
you are a person with a disability which requires reasonable accommodation in order to
participate in this meeting, please contact the City Clerk at 813/780-0000 at least 48 hours
prior to the public hearing. A.D.A. and F.S. 286.26.
Page 1 of 14

[PAGE 2]
Summary – Water Status Overview
Previous Permit (WUP 6040.011, 2020 Renewal)
• 20-year permit, authorized 3.308 MGD AADF and 3.672 MGD peak month flow.
• Established compliance rate of 87 gpcd for 2040 population of 37,027.
• Required use of an integrated surface/groundwater model
• Return flows from the RIBs were necessary to offset impacts to the Hillsborough River
Groundwater Basin.
• Projected end-of-permit return flows: 2.804 MGD.
• 2023 Facilities Plan showed population growth exceeding WUP capacity.
• Projected population (with all known developments): 2040: 49,888.
• Projected demand: 2040: 4.50 MGD.
Current Permit (WUP 6040.012, 2025 Modification)
• Expires Nov 17, 2040; authorizes 4.493 MGD AADF, 5.00 MGD peak month flow; compliance
rate 87 gpcd for 48,928 population.
• Requires RIB flow offsets and connection to agricultural well.
• Current use (2024): 2.772 MGD for 33,187 population.
• Additional capacity: YMCA well (0.246 MGD) and agricultural well (1.185 MGD) not yet
connected.
Future Supply Options
• Relocate agricultural well withdrawals (site 2.5 miles north, gaining ~0.60 MGD potential).
• Purchase water from other utilities (may require retreatment)
• Interconnect with Dade City (No longer has excess WUP capacity and aging infrastructure
requires improvements).
• Absorb service areas with excess WUP capacity.
• Develop Lower Floridan aquifer wells (requires testing and modeling) probably not a significant
benefit due to depth and potential lack of confinement between aquifers.
• Surface water source (reservoir): not practical due to treatment costs.
• Aquifer storage and recovery: not practical due to inland location/hydrogeology.
• Implement conservation and capital projects to reduce loss and expand reclaimed water. Must
be balanced with the permit requirement to discharge to the RIBs.
• Domestic self-supply wells allowed; ordinance requires connection within 200 ft of water line.
Key Challenge
Use it or lose it. We must closely track the anticipated water usage throughout the permit.
Projected demand by 2040 (4.50 MGD) approaches current permit capacity (4.493 MGD), requiring
additional sources and conservation measures to maintain compliance and meet growth in the
future.
Page 2 of 14

[PAGE 3]
Agenda Memo for City Growth
“How Shall We Grow?” Visioning Workshop
Issue:
The City of Zephyrhills is convening a joint workshop of the Mayor and City Council,
Planning Commission, and City staff to conduct a long-range visioning discussion
regarding future growth, development, and water supplies as part of the City of
Zephyrhills 2050 Comprehensive Plan Update.
The workshop responds to a central issue now facing the City: how to accommodate
continuing population growth within the limits of available and planned water supplies.
The recent water-use permit update, together with development activity surrounding the
City, make it timely to evaluate where and how future housing and associated public
infrastructure and services should occur through 2050.
Attachments:
1. Workshop Agenda
2. Questions to Consider
3. Population Growth and Projections, 2010–2050
4. Housing Demand and Supply, 2025–2050
5. Where Future Homes Could Go: Land Capacity
6. Where and How Much Housing: Land Use Policy
7. How Development Form Shapes Water Demand
8. Housing Choices and Affordability
9. Regional Growth Influences (Two Rivers and Villages of Pasadena Hills)
Analysis:
Population and Housing Growth: The City’s population is projected to more than
double by 2050, creating demand for approximately 10,000 additional housing units
beyond those currently approved or under construction.
Water Supply and Concurrency: The City’s recently approved Water Use Permit
authorizes an average withdrawal of 4.4939 MGD, sufficient for roughly 14,980 dwelling
units at the City’s level of service standard (300 gallons per day per unit). Current
projections indicate that demand may exceed this capacity around 2035–2040, requiring
proactive planning for conservation, reuse, or system expansion.
Growth Scenarios and Land Use Direction: The workshop will examine potential
development scenarios within both the City and unincorporated Joint Planning Area
(JPA), comparing implications of three broad approaches to accommodating population
and housing growth through 2050:
1. Grow Inward – Redevelopment and Infill within Existing City Limits
Focuses on redevelopment and infill under the City’s adopted Future Land Use
categories, the adopted ReImagine Gall Boulevard Form-Based Code (FBC), and the
proposed CRA Master Plan, emphasizing existing neighborhoods, corridors, and
employment hubs.
1
Page 3 of 14

[PAGE 4]
Agenda Memo for City Growth
Key Considerations:
• Make use of existing public infrastructure and services, reducing per-unit costs and
extending the life of current facilities
• Encourage mixed-use, walkable development in core areas where infrastructure and
utilities already exist
• Reduce vehicle miles traveled and overall water demand per household, supporting
sustainability goals
2. Grow Outward – Planned Expansion into the Joint Planning Area (JPA)
Envisions the annexation and coordinated extension of public infrastructure and services
into portions of the JPA to accommodate future residential development.
Key Considerations:
• Provide opportunities for new large-scale development and master-planned
communities that could diversify the local housing mix
• Requires significant new capital investment in water, sewer, transportation,
stormwater, and public safety infrastructure, as well as careful phasing to maintain
fiscal sustainability
• Likely to increase traffic congestion and long-term transportation costs if growth
occurs without integrated land use and mobility
• May be necessary to accommodate long-term population growth once the City’s
internal capacity is built out
3. Hybrid Strategy – Balanced Internal and External Growth
Combines targeted expansion within the JPA with strategic reinvestment along key
corridors. This approach integrates infill/redevelopment within the existing urban fabric
with carefully phased infrastructure/service extensions to new growth areas.
Key Considerations:
• Balance growth between new development areas and reinvestment in the existing
City fabric
• Maximize fiscal efficiency by phasing infrastructure expansion where it supports both
corridor reinvestment and new development
• Provide flexibility to respond to market demand while maintaining a compact,
connected urban form
• Encourage coordination with County and regional partners to align growth
management, transportation planning, and water-supply strategies
Regional Influences: Major projects like Two Rivers and Villages of Pasadena Hills will
drive substantial population and housing growth in eastern Pasco County, shaping future
demand and service planning in Zephyrhills.
Funding:
N/A
2
Page 4 of 14

[PAGE 5]
Agenda Memo for City Growth
Staff Recommendation:
This item is for discussion and direction only.
Staff requests that City Council and Planning Commission members review the attached
background materials and participate in the visioning activities and discussion to identify
a preferred growth approach for use in preparing draft policy updates for the 2050
Comprehensive Plan.
3
Page 5 of 14

[PAGE 6]
AGENDA HANDOUT - ROUGH DRAFT
WORKSHOP AGENDA Timeframe: 90 minutes
“How Shall We Grow” Visioning Workshop Identify preferred growth
Purpose:
direction and public investments
priorities that align with water-
supply realities for the 2050
Comprehensive Plan Update.
0:00–0:02 (2 MIN) Outcomes:
WELCOME & OBJECTIVES Values to preserve
(1)
Preferred growth approach
(2)
(Inward / Outward / Hybrid)
Top 3 public investments
(3)
0:02–0:12 (10 MIN)
Next-step direction to staff
OVERVIEW: GROWTH & WATER (4)
0:12–0:25 (14 MIN)
EXERCISE 1 – PRESERVE/IMPROVE
0:25–0:35 (10 MIN)
GROWTH SCENARIO PRIMER
0:35–0:55 (20 MIN)
EXERCISE 2 – GROWTH STRATEGY MAPPING
0:55–1:10 (15 MIN)
EXERCISE 3 – INVESTMENT PRIORITIES
1:10–1:25 (15 MIN)
GROUP REPORT-OUTS
1:25–0:30 (5 MIN)
SYNTHESIS & NEXT STEPS
Joint Visioning Workshop | PLANZephyrhills 2050 Page 1
Page 6 of 14

[PAGE 7]
AGENDA HANDOUT - ROUGH DRAFT
QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER Take a few
Before You Arrive:
minutes to reflect on
“How Shall We Grow” Visioning Workshop
Zephyrhills’ future before the
workshop.
What kind of city do you want Zephyrhills to
be known for in 2050?
1. What We Value What choices do we need to make now to
help make that vision real?
What do you love most about Zephyrhills today?
What do you want your family or future residents to
experience in 2050?
What would you like to preserve, improve, or add
as the city grows?
Ὦ ️♀️
2. Growth Direction
4. Public Investments & Priorities
Should future housing focus on infill and
redevelopment inside the city or expansion into If the City could make three major public
new areas? investments in the next five years, what should they
be?
How can the city guide growth to protect
neighborhood character and manage costs? (Examples: sidewalks, stormwater, parks,
downtown improvements, water/sewer upgrades.)
What worries you most about growth; traffic, water,
affordability, or something else? How can investments strengthen both existing
neighborhoods and new development areas?
3. Water & Infrastructure
5. Regional Influences
Zephyrhills’ permitted water supply is 4.49 million
gallons per day, or about 250 gallons per home per How do nearby projects like Two Rivers and the
day. Villages of Pasadena Hills affect Zephyrhills’
future?
How should this shape decisions about where and
how we grow? How might the city position itself within this regional
growth as a distinct hometown, an employment hub,
What would responsible growth look like, knowing
or both?
our water capacity has limits?
Are there ways to use existing infrastructure and
service areas more efficiently before expanding
outward?
Joint Visioning Workshop | PLANZephyrhills 2050 Page 2
Page 7 of 14

[PAGE 8]
AGENDA HANDOUT - ROUGH DRAFT
POPULATION GROWTH & PROJECTIONS, 2000-2050
City of Zephyrhills
2050
44,092
The City of Zephyrhills has nearly doubled in population since 2000,
growing from just over ten thousand residents to more than twenty 2045
thousand today. 39,392
Growth is expected to continue, reaching nearly forty thousand by 2045
and over forty-four thousand by 2050.
2035
These projections highlight the need to plan to
29,732
ensure that housing, water supplies, public
infrastructure/services can keep pace with a rapidly
expanding community.
2025
20,732
2020
17,194
2010
13,288
2000
10,833
+2.27% / +2.94% / +4.11% / +4.34% / +3.25% / +2.38% /
Year Year Year Year Year Year
2000 2010 2020 2025 2035 2045 2050
100% Counts Projections
2024
19,666
Official Estimate
Sources:
U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census (100% Counts).
Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR): April 1 Florida Estimates of Population.
City of Zephyrhills Planning Department: Population Projections (Linear Method), validated through
review of 1) approved but unbuilt development (Water Supply Facilities Work Plan); 2) recent residential
building permit activity, and trends in vacant housing rates.
Joint Visioning Workshop | PLANZephyrhills 2050 Page 3
Page 8 of 14

[PAGE 9]
AGENDA HANDOUT - ROUGH DRAFT
HOUSING DEMAND & SUPPLY, 2025-2050
City of Zephyrhills
Existing Conditions, 2023
2019–2023 Estimates, American Community Survey, US Census Bureau.
2023 2023 2023
N/A N/A N/A
9,285 2.29 15.6%
Existing Persons Per Household Housing Vacancy Rate
Housing Units
Based on population projections, Factors that could increase or
Zephyrhills is on track to meet decrease housing need:
short-term housing needs, but
by
• Demographic shifts
2035 the city could face a housing shortage.
• Housing market conditions
(e.g., affordability, vacancy rates)
• Policy and land use decisions
• Water, infrastructure, and
Population Projections
service capacity
• External forces (e.g., economic
cycles, natural hazards, state laws)
By 2050, the deficit could exceed ten thousand homes.
Projected Housing Unit Surplus/ Deficit)
2025 2035 2045 2050
N/A N/A N/A N/A
+1,518 -3,343 -8,204 -10,634
Joint Visioning Workshop | PLANZephyrhills 2050 Page 4
Page 9 of 14

[PAGE 10]
AGENDA HANDOUT - ROUGH DRAFT
WHERE FUTURE HOMES COULD GO: LAND CAPACITY
City of Zephyrhills
Identified are three opportunity areas for new
housing in within the City and its Joint Planning
Area (JPA) with Pasco County.
vacant and
Community Redevelopment Area (CRA):
Community
underutilized parcels with
Redevelopment Area
redevelopment potential supported by
existing public infrastructure and
services.
VACANT ACRES:
26
Additional areas of the City
Other City Areas:
Other City Areas
suitable for compact, mixed housing
types, including employment hubs.
VACANT ACRES:
286
Joint Planning Area
Unincorporated lands
Joint Planning Area:
adjacent to the City with longer-term
VACANT ACRES: potential for annexation and coordinated
474 service expansion.
Joint Visioning Workshop | PLANZephyrhills 2050 Page 5
Page 10 of 14

[PAGE 11]
AGENDA HANDOUT - ROUGH DRAFT
WHERE & HOW MUCH HOUSING: LAND USE POLICY
City of Zephyrhills and Pasco County
The in the City’s
Future Land Use Map and FLU categories The FLU categories establish the intended density, mix
of uses, and community character for each area,
Comprehensive Plan, and the corresponding Pasco guiding
.
County designations within the Joint Planning Area decisions about annexation, infrastructure investment, and zoning standards
(JPA), define where and how future neighborhoods can
develop.
CITY FUTURE LAND USE CATEGORIES (ADOPTED)
Residential FLU Categories

Residential Estate 0 to 2 units/acre (UPA)

Residential Suburban 2.5 to 7.5 UPA

Residential Urban 7.5 to 14 UPA

Mobile Home/RV Residential 5 to 18 UPA

Mixed Use 0 to 15 UPA

Form-based Code (?) 0 to 20 UPA
COUNTY FUTURE LAND USE CATEGORIES (PROPOSED)
Suburban Density Residential (SDR) Category (NEW)
Consolidation of legacy categories 
RES-3; RES-6; RES-9; and
into SDR
RES-12
SDR is a guided by a
Tiered Land Use Approach Compatibility Matrix;
maximum 18.0 UPA
SDR effective date after (SB 180 related)
October 1, 2027
Developers may voluntarily adopt SDR before October 1,
2027
Joint Visioning Workshop | PLANZephyrhills 2050 Page 6
Page 11 of 14

[PAGE 12]
AGENDA HANDOUT - ROUGH DRAFT
HOW DEVELOPMENT FORM SHAPES WATER DEMAND
Density, design & land use patterns influence long-term water needs
Rural to Urban Transect
Neighborhood design has a measurable impact on Across sunbelt cities, the pattern is clear: higher
how much water residents use each day. While density, smaller lots, and more multifamily housing
indoor water use stays relatively consistent across mean lower water use per household. In Florida,
housing types, outdoor irrigation is the real where a single lawn-watering cycle can exceed
differentiator. Outdoor water use drops sharply as 1,000 gallons, the connection between lot size,
development becomes more compact. landscaping, and overall demand is especially
pronounced.
Excess outdoor demand not only increases total use
but also intensifies water shortages during dry Indoor efficiency improvements have cut per-person
periods. indoor use nationwide by about 15% since 1999.
The next frontier for conservation lies in how and
where we build.
Translating Water Demand by Transect Zone
T2 Zone (sub-rural: Larger lot, more turf) T4 Zone (general urban: small lots, townhomes, mixed forms)
Total: ~95–170 gpcd (Indoor ~55–65; Outdoor ~40– Total: ~70–100 gpcd (Indoor ~55–65; Outdoor ~10–
105, highly lawn- and irrigation-policy-dependent). 35). Rationale: Reduced private yards and irrigable
Rationale: Largest irrigable areas, frequent area.
automatic irrigation, and amenities (e.g., pools) drive
T5 Zone (urban center: multifamily-heavy)
high outdoor demand.
Total: ~50–75 gpcd (Indoor ~45–60; Outdoor
T3 Zone (sub-urban: larger lots, more turf) minimal except common areas). Rationale: MF units
Total: ~85–130 gpcd (Indoor ~55–65; Outdoor ~30– with little/zero private irrigation; MF is consistently
65, highly lawn- and irrigation-policy-dependent). lower per unit/per capita.
Rationale: Outdoor dominates; aligns with studies
Actual demand varies by irrigable area, lot size,
Note:
showing higher irrigation on larger lots.
landscape standards, conservation policies, reclaimed water
availability, household occupancy, irrigation practices
(including HOA rules), seasonality, and local climate.
Joint Visioning Workshop | PLANZephyrhills 2050 Page 7
Page 12 of 14

[PAGE 13]
AGENDA HANDOUT - ROUGH DRAFT
HOUSING CHOICES & AFFORDABILITY
Keeping Zephyrhills livable and affordable for all residents
What do these age cohort trends suggest about future demand for diverse housing types? What kinds of homes will best fit their needs?
Which income groups in Zephyrhills experience the greatest housing cost pressures? What types of homes or policies would most directly relieve those burdens?
In 2025, the HUD Area Median Income (AMI)
for Pasco County is $98,400 for a family of
four (80% AMI = $78,720 and 50% AMI =
$49,200.
Dwelling Units Per Acre
Joint Visioning Workshop | PLANZephyrhills 2050 Page 8
ecirP
emoH
fo
erahS
sa
tsoC
dnaL
Cost-burdened households
Page 13 of 14

[PAGE 14]
AGENDA HANDOUT - ROUGH DRAFT
REGIONAL GROWTH INFLUENCES
Positioning Zephyrhills within East Pasco’s transforming housing market
How might Zephyrhills position itself to offer
desirable, attainable homes while maintaining
its established community identity and
managing growth responsibly?
Villages of Pasadena Hills
(VOPH)
Orsi
Properties
~20,000 acres
Evans
41,987 units
Two Rivers
~3,400 acres
6,400 units
4,047 single-family units
514 townhomes
108 villas
1,878 multifamily units
Joint Visioning Workshop | PLANZephyrhills 2050 Page 9
Page 14 of 14